So after 13 weeks of football action it comes down to an exciting slate of league championship games, including two brand new editions (the Big Ten and the Pac 12)...all of which mean....nothing.
That's right, apparently, the football Gods have come down from high and declared the regardless of anything that happens this weekend, LSU and Alabama will face off for the national championship - even if LSU loses the SEC Title game to Georgia and even if Alabama loses...wait - they dont' have to do anything - I keep forgetting that voting coaches and Harris poll voters are sheeples going along with ESPN's every desire.
No wonder the championship games, even those not involving hapless ACC teams, are struggling to sell tickets. (In the Pac-10's defense, they got royally hosed when ineligible for post-season USC worked over everyone thus leading to its latest victim (UCLA in a 50 to 0 route) to go up against Oregon.)
It certainly does appear that Bristol is enamored with the idea of a rematch for the title game. This HAS happened before. And BOY what a great game. Way back when in 1996, Florida concluded the season with its first national title earned by beating Florida State, to whom it had lost 24-21 a mere five weeks before the de facto title game in the Sugar Bowl (pre-BCS era). And BOY that was satisfying - a 52 to 20 romp that said - Hey, the Gators can beat the Seminoles on a neutral field and now they both have the same record with one loss to each other - who gets the title? Why, Florida of course!
I've not had a long history of being overly critical of the BCS because I believe that for the most part, its gotten it right but this season is making the whole thing unravel from its all ready fragile state.
There are, as you all know, three components to the BCS system - two voting polls and one set of computer polls. The flaw in each is clearly on display this season. Let's start with the computers shall we?
Here are the latest BCS standings:
| BCS | Harris Poll | USA Today | Computer Rankings | ||||||||||||||
| RK | TEAM | AVG | PVS | RK | PTS | % | RK | PTS | % | AVG | A&H | RB | CM | KM | JS | PW | % |
| 1 | LSU | 1.0000 | 1 | 1 | 2875 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1475 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Alabama | .9551 | 2 | 2 | 2756 | .9586 | 2 | 1411 | .9566 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .950 |
| 3 | Oklahoma State | .8712 | 4 | 5 | 2414 | .8397 | 5 | 1245 | .8441 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | .930 |
| 4 | Stanford | .8559 | 6 | 3 | 2512 | .8737 | 4 | 1289 | .8739 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 5 | .820 |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | .7811 | 5 | 4 | 2438 | .8480 | 3 | 1291 | .8753 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 11 | .620 |
| 6 | Houston | .7399 | 8 | 6 | 2147 | .7468 | 6 | 1096 | .7431 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | .730 |
| 7 | Boise State | .7027 | 7 | 8 | 2092 | .7277 | 8 | 1033 | .7003 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 12 | 8 | .680 |
| 8 | Arkansas | .7003 | 3 | 9 | 1971 | .6856 | 10 | 937 | .6353 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | .780 |
| 9 | Oregon | .6862 | 10 | 7 | 2107 | .7329 | 7 | 1041 | .7058 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 9 | .620 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | .6710 | 9 | 10 | 1768 | .6150 | 11 | 882 | .5980 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 10 | .800 |
| 11 | Kansas State | .5702 | 11 | 15 | 1348 | .4689 | 15 | 681 | .4617 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | .780 |
| 12 | South Carolina | .5684 | 12 | 14 | 1554 | .5405 | 13 | 833 | .5647 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | .600 |
| 13 | Michigan State | .5369 | 14 | 11 | 1704 | .5927 | 9 | 941 | .6380 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 15 | .380 |
| 14 | Georgia | .5348 | 13 | 12 | 1613 | .5610 | 14 | 816 | .5532 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 14 | .490 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | .4576 | 16 | 13 | 1567 | .5450 | 12 | 852 | .5776 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 25 | 18 | .250 |
| 16 | Michigan | .4310 | 15 | 16 | 1256 | .4369 | 16 | 658 | .4461 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 22 | 17 | .410 |
| 17 | Baylor | .3910 | 18 | 18 | 900 | .3130 | 18 | 457 | .3098 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 13 | .550 |
| 18 | TCU | .3310 | 20 | 17 | 980 | .3409 | 17 | 534 | .3620 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 19 | 23 | 19 | 16 | .290 |
| 19 | Nebraska | .2578 | 21 | 19 | 773 | .2689 | 19 | 390 | .2644 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 25 | 24 | 19 | .240 |
| 20 | Clemson | .1979 | 17 | 20 | 632 | .2198 | 21 | 286 | .1939 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 21 | .180 |
| 21 | Penn State | .1382 | 19 | 22 | 415 | .1443 | 22 | 192 | .1302 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .140 |
| 22 | Texas | .1334 | 25 | 25 | 160 | .0557 | NR | 51 | .0346 | 17 | 16 | 0 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 20 | .310 |
| 23 | West Virginia | .1241 | NR | 21 | 495 | .1722 | 20 | 295 | .2000 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 24 | Southern Miss | .0724 | NR | 23 | 287 | .0998 | 23 | 173 | .1173 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 25 | Missouri | .0588 | NR | NR | 16 | .0056 | NR | 16 | .0108 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 25 | .160 |
PC MESS
Let's examine the computers thinking for a minute. Now, before I assail these things, let me note that I do recognize that pretty much every one of the nerds that programmed these algorithms has noted that the BCS ruling that margin of victory cannot be considered has created deeply flawed formulas. This protestation has led the BCS higher-ups to say, "Right, right...just give us the numbers you pencil necked geeks!" So, how flawed are they...a few highlights:
- According to three of the six PC polls, Arkansas is the 4th best team in the country, even after losing to Bama and LSU by significantly large margins and even after considering tat the Razorbacks, for all there offensive firepower, have exactly two victories over teams with winning records (one of which is 7-5 Auburn)
- According to two of those same three Arkansas loving polls, the 7-5 Missouri Tigers are the 16th or 15th best team in the country.
- Those same two polls consider the Wisconsin Badgers either the 24th or 25th best team in the country.
- Those same two polls count, among their top 16 teams in the country, SIX Big 12 teams. Remember now, the Big 12 only has 10 teams so these two polls consider 60% of the Big 12 to be better than 87% of all of the Division 1 schools. More on this in my next bullet point, because I'm only talking about the teams that show up in the BCS standings
- The computer polls rank the Virginia Tech Hokies anywhere from 8th to 18th in the country. Now, I recognize I'm as big a Hokie homer as anyone but 18th? For an 11-1 team? That poll, Jeff Sagarin's poll (one of the two mentioned above, by the way) says that the 7-5 Auburn Squad, which isn't in the BCS rankings, is the 17th best team in the country and that 6-6 Texas A&M is the 16th best team in the country. You read that right, according to a poll accepted by the BCS, a 6-6 Texas A&M team is better than a 11-1 Virginia Tech team. (lest you think I'm too sensitive to the issue, Sagarin's poll also suggests Texas A&M is better than 10-2 Michigan, 10-2 Michigan State, and 10-2 Wisconsin) In fact, if Sagarin had his way and could calculate margin of victory, he'd consider Texas A&M, at 6-6, to be the 12th best team in the country.
- According to the computer polls, Wisconsin is anywhere from the 14th best to 25th best team in the country.
- According to the computer polls, Stanford is anywhere from the 4th best to 10th best team in the country.
- According to the computer polls, Oregon is anywhere from the 5th best to 12th best team in the country.
Any of this strike you as troubling?
Coaches and Truth
It is a widely known "secret" that most coaches that vote in the coaches poll don't actually vote. Someone on their staff does. Nick Saban is focused on 12 teams, at most, at any one given time in the season - those that are on his schedule. Do you think he takes the time to watch Oregon vs Stanford, much less Boise State versus Wyoming?
But let's pretend for a second that, in fact, these coaches did. Is it somewhat possible that coaches MIGHT be a bit incapable of unbiased voting? Think Saban is voting his own Crimson Tide team lower than two? Think he's voting Arkansas or any of his SEC opponents lower than what could reasonably considered something less than treasonous? And who could blame him?
So, consider if you will the fact that the reason two human based polls are in the mix is that the computers don't know everything, you would think that, perhaps, said humans would consider the fact that Alabama has all ready played LSU into the voting - not in the coaches world. Bama is number 2 by a long shot over #3 Virginia Tech, which eked ahead of Stanford by two points.
So who's voting for whom? Well, we don't get to see that until it is all done - how convenient.
Maybe the Harris Poll can straighten out this mess?
Harris Teeters
Nope, the Harris poll puts the Tide ahead of its number 3, Stanford, by almost the same margin that the Coaches put the Tide over the Hokies.
For some reason Harris voters did see fit to rank the 8-4 Florida State Seminoles based on the strength of its win over the worst Florida team in two decades.
(As an aside, neither the Coaches nor Harris Poll consider the Sagarin-sainted Texas A&M Aggies to be anywhere near the top 25.)
So, in conclusion you've got a crappy computer system that isn't balanced by two crappy human systems. So, what you have is a system that renders useless a full week of regular season ending football in the name of putting together the "two best" teams. And THIS is progress? The reason I didn't care that much for a true playoff is that I felt it rendered the regular season meaningless - well now we have a system that's done exactly that WITHOUT the benefit of a playoff!?!?!?
Not to be offensive to our Tiger loving Bayou brethren in our pool ranks, but I REALLY hope Georgia absolutely slobberknocks LSU this weekend to see the real wrangling that would result.
Other Shenanigans
I can't think of a better group than the rule-benders that comprise the leadership of the Ohio State University to get the biggest weasel of the last 10 years in college football. The shame of it is, the hire will work because Urban Meyer will breath some life back into a program that doesn't need much resuscitation.
Despite the fact that Rick Neuheisal was canned yet again for basically being a really sucky coach, somehow I'm guessing he will land a cherry coaching job.
Arizona State's hiring of RichRod is going to look nowhere near as good as Washington State's hiring of Mike Leach.
Despite the fact that he led the Aggies to the Sagarin-rated 13th best spot in the country, Mike Sherman was fired. Weird.
As of this writing, West Virginia's slim hopes for a Big East bid to the BCS bonanza rides on it's ability to be 5-6 South Florida, loser of 6 of its last 7 games. The Neers are currently down by 7 with 9 minutes left. Without knowing the conclusion of this game I can comfortably and confidently say that the Big East is atrocious.
No comments:
Post a Comment